Session 10 - Predicting the future

The Foresight paradox: every forecast (or scenario, or prediction) has to find the right balance between the two, trading off likelihood for believability. 

Source: http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/cascio20111001

Brief Overview/Summary of the themes/topics addressed during the session

We learn as we grow. We apply as we learn. But, can we do more than that?

To wrap up the content for the course in this final session, we were given the chance to explore beyond what we know – the future. Predicting the future has never been easy. But it is nevertheless crucial.

“Every moment of our lives is going forward in the future”. 

This statement was raised in class. And I found it very real and true. Indeed, we will be spending our time in the future rather than the past. Yet, as human beings, we often look back to the past at our errors, success, mistakes, and failure. This is because some of us enjoy the feeling of reminiscing the past.  But, it is important to remember that living in the past does not help us progress. Most of the time, just by recalling our memories, cannot prepare us for the future, because the future changes. 

Interesting Observations and Ideas (ideas and concepts that captured your attention)

Many foresight methods were shared during the session. Examples include backcasting, bibliometrics, brainstorming, expert panels, future workshops, gaming, etc. These are all really interesting methods, because I have never heard of them before the session. It took me a bit of researching before I could fully understand these methods, and I found most of them rather inspirational.

Assessment #1 “Delphi”

One of the methods that I have never heard before is “Delphi”. Delphi brings expert opinions together to seek consensus on forecast. Essentially, experts revise their opinions in light of the opinions of other experts until a conclusion is agreed upon. This type of collaborative forecasting intrigued me because I felt that in this competitive world, we lack the compulsion to share. And it can be seen from Delphi that sharing ideas with one another is a possible way of predicting the future.

Assessment #2 “Scenario Planning” & “Backcasting”

Other methods that captured my attention were “Scenario planning” and “Backcasting”. Scenario planning involves thinking about how change can evolve and how we might respond to it. Backcasting is even more interesting. It requires one to step out into the future and assume nothing none of the existing things are in consideration (i.e. products that we use, or even the values that we keep may not be in existent in future). By assuming this, the person is able to imagine a future that he wants, and then he would backcast from the future to the present to see what are the factors that might indicate that we are heading to that future.

Both methods interest me because they are difficult to achieve and they truly test people’s ability to move beyond our knowledge today and imagine the future.

Difference between forecast and backcasting 

Assessment #3 “Predictive policing”

Predictive policing was introduced during individual presentations. I thought this was very fascinating because I never imagined predictive methods could actually be applicable to resolve current problems. This method involved using science (Mathematics and Social Science) to draw up maps with possible hotspots of crime. These are based on trends of crimes in the past few years. What was amazing was that the LADP has actually experienced success with this method. This clearly indicates that forecast methods are truly useful. I believe that when more people start to appreciate strategic planning, and use it, we might be able to achieve a lot more.

Explanation of predictive policing

Assessment #4 “Story-Telling”

For this session, I presented the topic about using story telling for forecasting and assessing technology development. Science fiction has played a great part in our lives. They are the stories for our parents; they are our childhood; and they essentially become part of our imagination. I think science fiction has a unique method of forecasting technology. We have seen much in science fiction come true. It can be perceived that this is because science fiction is based on experiences the author has gone through, and his perception of things. And when he creates the future, he is not confined by scientific theories. Hence, it may be more accurate because anything is possible in the future.

 Hologram - fact or fiction? Will 3D technology advance to this stage?

I think it is evident that this form of narrative story telling has the uncanny ability to predict the future. Perhaps, it could even be argued that some existent technologies were inspired directly from the science fiction stories. Maybe, when it comes to forecasting and assessing future technology, we should over look current limitations.

Key Take Away Points (the 2 or 3 key messages from the session that you intend to keep in mind going forward)

Firstly, I think what I’ve learnt most in this session is that we have come to an age when forecast and foresight have become a necessity. Strategic planning becomes important because we are progressing very quickly. This means that we may not have sufficient time to react to the changes (because we will not be prepared).

“In a world where you and your competitors receive the same information from the same supplier on the same day, your capacity to generate different, more accurate future of your industry will be your greatest success.”

Source: [YouTube] Strategic Foresight is the Next Business Frontier  (shown in class)

Indeed, after much research, I am convinced that strategic planning is essential today.

Secondly, I think that not only is it important to use these methods – taking action and doing something about them is vital. But, we need to be smart enough to pick out the right method. Investing in the right strategy can help one stand out amongst his competitors. That being said, I think that the future is too fickle. It changes too much and too frequently. Therefore, no method may be exactly accurate.

However, this does not mean that we do not invest in strategic planning. It simply means that we have to take certain precaution when taking action about the plan. Lost should be within expectation because like all investments there will always be a chance that one is wrong in the prediction.

Issues for Further Discussion (stuff you wish had been considered or given more air-time in class – and why)

Is there really no limit in the world? Is there truly no such thing as “exaggerations” in science fiction?

I hoped that the more airtime was give to the above questions. I do agree that our knowledge is limited and what are in existent are projections of our imaginations and knowledge. But, will there come a time when our imagination has reached its limit and there are no further steps for progression? Are our imaginations truly unlimited?  Can we create indefinitely? 

I really do hope so because this would mean that our future would truly be an exciting one. 

Personal Ratings for Session (how you would rate the session on a scale of 0 to 10. Feel free to be as subjective as you like in your assessment)

I thought this session ended with a rather good note. It was inspiring and left many questions for us to explore. I look forward to the next few sessions. I believe that there will be more fresh and inspiring messages that I can take away. I would rate this session a 9/10.

The future would be an exciting one